The Transition of CO2 Emission and Employment Multipliers from Brown to Green Under a Renewable Energy-Based Economic Growth Scenario in Türkiye:2053 Vision

Ilkay Guler

Abstract


In this study, the changes in employment and CO2 emission multipliers caused by economic growth and the transition to renewable energy are calculated under two scenarios in Türkiye. In the first scenario, employment and CO2 emission multipliers are calculated for every 1 million dollars of final demand for all sectors in the Turkish economy with the current use of energy resources. Extended input-output analysis is applied using employment and CO2 emission data published on dates consistent with Türkiye's most recent input-output table. The findings show that employment in all sectors would increase by 828 persons (14 persons in the energy sector), and CO2 emissions would increase by 29,323 (MtCO2) (5548.2 (MtCO2) in the energy sector). Then, the second scenario analysis was conducted for Türkiye's COP29 commitments. Considering Türkiye's COP 29 target of increasing the share of renewable energy to 69.1% in 2053, it is assumed that CO2 emissions will decrease at the same rate. In this framework, the same analysis was used to calculate how much CO2 emissions would decrease in case of a demand of 1 million dollars for each sector separately. As a result, it was concluded that the CO2 emissions caused by the production of all sectors would decrease by 20262.4 (MtCO2) (2119.43 (MtCO2) in the energy sector). Regarding employment, it is estimated that 10 people will work in the renewable energy sector.


Keywords


Renewable Energy, Economic Growth, Employment Multiplier, CO2 Emission Multiplier, Production Multiplier, Extended Input-Output Analyses

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